Where are the sales?
That’s the question many of us are asking ourselves now that retail data for July has been released, revealing yet another month that failed to live up to expectations even if sales did marginally increase over where they were last year.
Comparable sales at leading retailers, defined as stores that have been opened for at least one calendar year, were up 2.9 percent this past month versus July of 2009 according to Thompson Reuters’ latest monthly index of retail sales. While the monthly data once again surpassed recorded sales figures just 12 months ago, the growth was still well below what many analysts had forecasted.
Most predictions for July 2010 retail says were calling for increases in the 3 to 4 percent range.
What’s especially troubling about this mediocre growth is that July was the first “clean” month in quite awhile, with no holidays shifting months from last year to now and no extra weeks that could potentially alter any reasonable comparisons between the two sets of data.
As such, July 2010 offers once of the clearest snapshots of current consumer behavior: even though most retailers report strong traffic, it’s clear that shoppers are still hesitant to over-spend and are looking around for bargains wherever they can find them.
The extremely hot weather in many parts of the U.S. certainly played a big role in the disappointing month as well, pushing consumers towards more marked down and clearance summer items. And Michael Niemara, the International Council of Shopping Center’s chief economist also believes the high temperatures kept a lot of back-to-school shoppers home during a month when many are beginning to stock up for the fall.
“Back-to-school demand, which normally kicks in late in July, also was postponed as hot weather curbed the consumer’s interest and urge to buy,” Niemara said.
As we look forward, the hope is that the lackluster month of July (and even June, to some degree) will spur a strong month of August for retailers as the weather cools and consumers return to stores to complete their back-to-school shopping lists.
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[...] has done little but induce depression. Unemployment is up, the deficit is widening and as we’ve been reporting fairly frequently, sales at brick and mortar retail stores continue to [...]